Six Reasons Why Buffalo Could Win the Top Seed in a Crowded AFC
- Curtis Henry
- Jun 2, 2015
- 7 min read
For years now the Buffalo Bills have been seemingly the laughing stock of the NFL. Okay, they aren’t quite Jacksonville or Cleveland, but you get the point. Missing the playoffs for fifteen consecutive years tends to tarnish your credibility as a football team; no one is going to take a team seriously that hasn’t made the playoffs since Doug Flutie was the quarterback. It’s just the way it is.
Buffalo is a franchise unlike any other in the National Football League. The fans are rowdy and passionate, regardless of whether the team is 2-14 or 14-2. I’m sure every Seahawk fan out there can tell you how rowdy the 12th man was when the Hawks went 4-12 in 2008, or how vividly they can remember the Seahawks being in the AFC.
Every season is a fresh start in Buffalo. I mean really, who circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills? No one.
2015 brings the Bills the best opportunity to make the playoffs since the turn of the millennium. NFL Fans everywhere will continue to bash the Bills until it happens, saying “How many rings do they have though?” or “when was the last time your team made the playoffs?”
And well, each one of those fans is ignorant. No if’s, and’s or but’s about it.
A year ago, the following teams went 9-7; Houston, San Diego, Kansas City and Buffalo.
Houston, San Diego and Kansas City would all be considered conference favorites if they added five pro bowlers to the roster heading into 2015. They didn’t.
The fact of the matter is that Buffalo did. The additions of McCoy, Cassel, Incognito, Harvin and Felton are well documented at this point. The only real losses that Buffalo endured this offseason were Brandon Spikes, Kiko Alonso, CJ Spiller and Da’Norris Searcy.
Of those four, the only really tough loss is Searcy. Spiller has struggled with injuries in recent seasons and was quickly replaced by LeSean McCoy. Alonso missed all of last season after a second ACL tear in three years dating back to his days at Oregon. Without him the defense was still top-five. Spikes only played about 30% of all defensive snaps and will be easily replaced by Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham. Searcy will be missed as he was undeniably productive a season ago, but he should be replaced seamlessly by either Corey Graham or Duke Williams.
The bottom line is that the Bills are returning an Elite defensive unit that has dominated over the course of past couple of seasons. Also they’ve managed to minimize offensive issues and any quarterback incompetencies they may face by bringing in so much experienced offensive talent.
That brings me back to the entire point of this article. Not only should the Bills be favored to make the playoffs and break the streak in 2015, but they have an opportunity to make themselves one of the more dominant teams in the conference and possibly be the number one overall seed.
This isn’t as Skip Bayless-esque as it sounds, trust me.
Adding to the offensive influx of talent on the roster the Bills brought in some key pieces to the coaching staff in Rex Ryan and Greg Roman.
It wasn’t long ago that Rex Ryan brought the New York Jets to two consecutive AFC Championship games on the strength of his defense and with Mark Sanchez at quarterback. Sanchez at this point in his career seems to be a perennial NFL backup and nothing more.
The good news for Bills fans? They have three quarterbacks on the roster who could be seen as perennial NFL backups moving forward and the best two options possible on the coaching staff to make the most of them.
It’s fair to say EJ Manuel hasn’t gotten his true shot at being an NFL starter; the man has only played in 14 games. The same case can be made for Tyrod Taylor, who has warmed the bench behind Joe Flacco for the past four seasons in Baltimore. Matt Cassel may be a pro bowl quarterback, but it’s tough to find any positives aside from two good seasons in 2008 and 2010.
Rex Ryan has never had the opportunity to work with a great NFL quarterback as a head coach and this happens to be the case yet again in 2015. However the Bills still have a shot at the AFC’s one seed in 2015, and here are the reasons why:
1. Their Schedule
I cannot understand for the life of me why some Bills fans are complaining that we “got screwed” on the schedule this season. The schedule is fantastic!
The Bills have a luxury that no other NFL has in 2015- they begin the season with two home games and end the season with two home games. That gives them the opportunity to start strong and finish strong as every game at the Ralph is one that can be won. It’s that simple, really.
That goes without mentioning that four of the Bills toughest five games (New England, Indianapolis, Dallas, Cincinnati) are at home this season. The Patriots, Colts and Bengals are all Buffalo’s biggest threats to the 1 seed, so having those games at home is an indisputably huge advantage. The Indy and New England games at the Ralph in weeks one and two couldn’t come at better times, either. Indianapolis will have no game tape on how Ryan and Roman want to run plays on either side of the ball, and the chance that New England arrives at Buffalo in week two without Tom Brady is very high.
If the Bills can get two tough W’s in their first two games, their schedule is beautiful for the next two months. The following seven games are against the Dolphins, Giants, Titans, Bengals, Jags, Dolphins and Jets. The Bills have three huge scheduling advantages other than a possibly Brady-less Patriots team in week two.
The first is the fact that the Bills only have seven true road games. The game against Jacksonville is at a neutral site in London and is counted as a home game for the Jags.
The second is their bye. Their bye week couldn’t be more perfect; it’s right after the long trip to London and right in the middle of the season. It will allow the squad some needed rest just before three consecutive divisional games against Miami, New York and New England.
The third huge advantage is that the Bills get a Thursday night game and a subsequent “mini bye week” right before they take their trip to Foxboro. The game in New England is always the toughest on the schedule but the Bills will have 11 days to get rested. Rex Ryan knows how to play New England tough, so it stands to reason that Buffalo has a very real chance to win that game. The Jets played the Patriots within three points in each of their last four meetings with Geno Smith at the helm and no real weapons to speak of. I’d say Buffalo has a chance. 12-4 is feasible.
2. The Division is Wide Open
As much as I hate to say it, the Patriots are still the favorites to win the division. However, that could change really quickly. The Pats lost key cogs across the board this offseason. Departures of Vince Wilfork, Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, amongst others, can’t be overlooked. No real stars joined through free agency and the draft wasn’t anything overwhelming for New England after the first round.
They’re going to be missing out on their golden boy for four games to begin the season as well. One could argue the only team with a worse offseason was San Francisco, who had arguably the worst offseason since the free agency era began.
It stands to reason that New England opens the season 1-3 (I can’t see them dropping a game to Jacksonville) and would face an upward climb from that point on to claim the division. If the Bills or even the Dolphins start hot, it’s easy to see a scenario where New England doesn’t take the division.
3. Peyton Manning is Getting Old
Peyton Manning is one of the greats to ever set foot on a football field, but even he cannot outrun father time. Manning turned in some of the worst performances of his career down the stretch of last season and is 39 heading into 2015. He’s still a top-5 NFL talent at quarterback and I expect him to post good numbers again this season, but it’s a huge question as to whether or not he’ll lead Denver to being a contender down the stretch of this season. Losing guys like Julius Thomas and Wes Welker won’t exactly help his case this year.
4. The Colts are the Only AFC Team With an Elite QB Set to Start 16 Games
Tom Brady is going to miss some time and Peyton Manning is getting old… Leaving Andrew Luck to be the last truly elite talent in the AFC who figures to start 16 games at quarterback. Sure, teams like Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami, San Diego and Cincinnati aren’t going to say they have quarterback issues. They don’t.
But aside from Indy, New England, and maybe Denver, no one has an elite QB in the AFC. Buffalo is no different from those teams at quarterback. On top of that the Bills have a huge edge; the best defense in the conference. Defense wins championships. While the Colts have Andrew Luck, it’s obvious that they are lacking defensively.
5. 12-4 in the AFC is Typically Enough for at Least a First-Round Bye.
Remember when I said 12-4 was feasible for the Bills in 2015? That mark would almost assure them a first-round bye. The last time a 12-4 record wasn’t good enough for a first round bye was in 2011 when the Packers, Saints and 49ers all had 13 wins or more in a sub-par NFC. In 2014 the Patriots had the AFC’s #1 seed and the Seahawks had the NFC’s #1 seed, both with 12-4 records.
If the Bills hit that mark there’s a chance that they’ll be the number one seed. Should that happen the Bills will have a one seed for the first time since 1993 and the AFC will run through the Ralph come January.
6) Anything Can Happen
Here’s the bottom line. The NFL is the league with the most parity in American sports. Period. The Raiders can beat the Broncos or the Bills can beat the Patriots on any given Sunday. Each year a surprising team seems to emerge. The Cowboys and Cardinals a year ago. The Chiefs in 2013. The Redskins in 2012.
What’s to say the Bills can’t come out swinging in 2015 and shock the world?
Well, maybe not the entire world. I imagine there are a few people in Western New York who wouldn’t be surprised.
Any given Sunday.
Curtis Henry @curtishenry24
Co-Owner of Between the 20’s
Link to: Bills Fanatics FB Group
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